مودی کے بلوچستان کے بارے میں دیے گئے بیان کی اصل وجہ

لاپتہ افراد
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2007ء کے شروع کی بات ہے مجھے اطلاع ملی کہ سوات کے چار باغ علاقے کا ایک لاپتہ رہا ہو کر آیا ہے۔ چونکہ میرا بھائی بھی ان دنوں لاپتہ تھا تو میں ایک رات مغرب اور عشاء کے مابین چار باغ اس لاپتہ سے ملنے جا پہنچا۔ وہ بہت ہی زندہ دل شخص تھا۔ ہم نے فجر کی نماز تک گپ شپ کی جس میں اس کی داستان کا لگ بھگ ہر جز شامل تھا۔ گفتگو کا آغاز یوں ہوا تھا۔

"آپ کو کس الزام میں اٹھایا گیا تھا ؟"

"مجھ پر الزام تھا کہ میں نے امجد فاروقی (جنرل مشرف پر حملے کا ماسٹر مائنڈ) اور کوئی دو درجن القاعدہ والوں کو پناہ دی تھی"

"یہ الزام انہوں نے کیوں لگایا ؟"

اس نے ایک زوردار قہقہہ لگایا اور کہا۔

"الزام نہیں تھا سچ تھا اور صرف یہی نہیں بلکہ کریٹوں کے حساب سے اسلحہ بھی برآمد ہوا تھا جس میں ہینڈ گرنیڈ اور آر پی جی سیون بھی شامل تھے"

"کیا واقعی ؟"

اس نے میری آنکھوں دیکھتے ہوئے پوری سنجیدگی سے کہا۔

"ہاں بالکل !"

"تو پھر آپ کو چھوڑ کیسے دیا ؟"

"دو دن قبل مجھے میرے سیل سے نکال کر ایک افسر کے سامنے پیش کیا گیا جس نے مجھ سے کہا کہ بیٹا زندگی دوسرا موقع دے رہی ہے، مرضی تمہاری ہے کہ اس کا فائدہ اٹھا کر ایک پرسکون زندگی جیتے ہو یا پھر اسی راہ پر چلتے ہو جس پر چلتے ہوئے پکڑے گئے تھے۔ میں بس اتنا بتا دیتا ہوں کہ زندگی دوسرا موقع نہیں دے گی، یہ پہلا اور آخری موقع ہے۔ یہ کہہ کر وہ کالے شیشے والی گاڑی میں مجھے پیر ودھائی اڈے لائے جہاں مجھے سوات کا ٹکٹ خرید کر دیا گیا اور کچھ پیسے جیب خرچ کے طور دیئے گئے اور میں گھر آ گیا"

میں جب اسلام آباد لوٹا تو جنرل حمید گل مرحوم سے ملا اور انہیں یہ قصہ سنا کر رہنمائی مانگی کہ یہ کیا چکر ہے ؟ جنرل صاحب نے بتایا کہ پالیسی یہ ہے کہ جو نوجوان قتل یا بم پھاڑنے میں ملوث نہیں انہیں جینے کا دوسرا موقع دیا جائے گا البتہ جو کسی کے قتل یا بم پھاڑنے میں ملوث ہیں ان کے لئے کوئی معافی نہیں۔ چونکہ سینکڑوں لوگ گرفتار ہیں اور اتنی بڑی تعداد کو عمر قید یا سزائے موت دینا دانشمندی نہیں ہوتی اس لئے ایک لائن ڈرا کرنی ضروری ہوتی ہے اور وہ لائن یہی ہے کہ قتل اور بم دھماکے والوں کے سوا سب کو مناسب وقت پر چھوڑا جائے گا۔

اب یہاں کراچی کے ایک امام مسجد کا معاملہ بھی دیکھ لیجئے۔ خود میرا یہ پختہ یقین تھا کہ اس امام مسجد کو بے قصور اٹھایا گیا ہے کیونکہ میں اسے بچپن سے جانتا تھا اور اس کا جہادی تنظیموں وغیرہ سے کبھی کوئی تعلق نہیں رہا تھا۔ جب یہ امام مسجد رہا ہوا تو اس نے بتایا کہ اس پر الزام تھا کہ جنرل مشرف پر حملے میں استعمال ہونے والی رقم اس کے اکاؤنٹ سے گئی ہے۔ میں نے کہا۔

"یہ کیا بکواس ہوئی ؟"

تو اس نے بتایا۔

"ہاں یہ ہوا تھا"

میں نے پوچھا۔

"یہ کیوں کیا تھا تم نے ؟"

اس نے بتایا۔

"میرے فرشتوں کو بھی پتہ نہیں تھا، کچھ دوست تھے جنہوں نے بطور امانت رقم میرے اکاؤنٹ میں رکھوائی اور کچھ عرصے بعد ایک اکاؤنٹ نمبر دے کر کہا کہ ہماری رقم اس میں ٹرانسفر کردیں جو میں نے کردی"

میں نے پوچھا۔

"پھر تم نے اپنی بے گناہی ثابت کیسے کی ؟"

اس نے کہا۔

"میں نے نہیں بلکہ مجھے اٹھانے والوں نے ہی اس کے بھی ثبوت حاصل کر لئے تھے"

میں اس طرح کے درجنوں کیسز سے واقف ہوں جن میں کچھ لوگ بے خبری میں استعمال ہوئے، پکڑے گئے اور پھر ان کی بے گناہی انہوں نے یا ان کے رشتہ داروں نے ثابت نہیں کی بلکہ اٹھانے والوں نے ہی ثابت کی۔ جبکہ کچھ ایسے ہیں جو سنگین وارداتوں میں ملوث تھے مگر چونکہ یہ وارداتیں قتل یا بم دھماکے کی نہ تھیں اس لئے زندگی کا ایک اور موقع دے کر چھوڑ دیئے گئے۔ میں نے جس پہلے لاپتہ شخص کا ذکر کیا ہے یہ خیبر پختون خواہ کے ایک شہر میں اس وقت بھی کپڑے کا بزنس کر رہا ہے جو ان کا خاندانی بزنس ہے جبکہ کراچی کا وہ امام مسجد فیس بک کے چند اہم رائٹرز میں گنا جاتا ہے اور کراچی میں اپنی امامت و دیگر مشاغل سے وابستہ ہے۔

چونکہ میں درجنوں کیسز سے ذاتی طور پر واقف ہوں جبکہ ان کی اصل تعداد ہزاروں میں نہیں تو سینکڑوں میں ضرور ہوگی اس لئے یہ بات اچھی طرح جانتا ہوں کہ ہمارے ادارے کسی بے گناہ کو تو کیا گنہگار کو بھی اس وقت تک نہیں اٹھاتے جب تک اس کے خلاف تمام ثبوت جمع نہ کرلیں۔ اٹھایا ہی تب جاتا ہے جب تفتیش مکمل ہوجاتی ہے اور مزید کوئی ثبوت باقی رہ نہیں جاتا۔ میرے پاس لاپتہ افراد کے معاملات وقتا فوقتا آتے رہتے ہیں اور میں ہر متاثرہ فیملی سے یہی کہتا ہوں کہ اگر آپ کے بچے نے قتل نہیں کیا اور بم نہیں پھاڑا تو ہر حال میں واپس آئے گا اور اگر ان دونوں میں سے کچھ کیا ہے تو نواز شریف، جنرل راحیل اور چیف جسٹس آف پاکستان بھی کچھ نہیں کر سکتے وہ نہیں آئے گا۔ ملک حالتِ جنگ میں ہے اور جنگوں میں انصاف کے مروجہ ضابطے بدل جایا کرتے ہیں۔ امریکہ نے جنگی قیدیوں کو گوانتاناموبے میں سیکیورٹی وجوہات کے تحت نہیں رکھا تھا بلکہ اپنے ریگولر نظام انصاف کی رینج سے باہر رکھنے کے لئے وہاں رکھا تھا۔ اب سوال یہ ہے کہ ہمارے ادارے یہ سب قوم کو بتاتے کیوں نہیں ؟ میں نے ایک سابق افسر سے یہی سوال کیا تو اس نے بتایا۔

"این جی او مافیا (لبرلز) نے یہ تماشا بنا رکھا ہے کہ جب کسی کو اٹھا لیا جاتا ہے تو وہ شور مچاتے ہیں کہ بے گناہ کو اٹھا لیا گیا لیکن جب انہی میں سے کسی کو چھوڑ دیا جاتا ہے تو یہی مافیا کہتی ہے کہ دیکھو دہشت گرد اور فوج ملے ہوئے ہیں، فلاں نے اتنا سنگین جرم کیا تھا مگر اس کو چھوڑ دیا گیا۔ یہ لوگ دونوں ہی کیفیتوں کو فوج کے خلاف پروپیگنڈے کے لئے استعمال کرتے ہیں کیونکہ انہیں نہ تو کسی کی بے گناہی سے غرض ہے اور نہ ہی کسی کے دہشت گرد ہونے سے، یہ تو ہر حال میں فوج کے خلاف پروپیگنڈے سے غرض رکھتے ہیں کیونکہ یہ ان کا پیشہ ہے اور یہ اس جنگ میں انہی لوگوں کے آلہ کار ہیں جو دہشت گردوں کے سرپرست ہیں"

"تو ان کو لگام کیوں نہیں ڈالی جاتی ؟"

"ڈالی جائے گی مگر سب سے آخر میں کیونکہ ان پر ہاتھ ڈالنے کا باہر سے سب سے سخت ردعمل آئے گا، تب تک دہشت گردوں کا صفایا ضروری ہے"

یہ پوری تفصیل آپ کو اس لئے بتائی ہے کہ نریندر مودی کے جو آلہ کار اب سرگرم ہونے جا رہے ہیں ان کی بھی ظاہر ہے کہ شامت آئے گی اور جب ایسا ہوگا تو اسی فیس بک پر ان کے گماشتے "لاپتہ، لاپتہ" کی گردان شروع کریں گے۔ آپ نے ان کی گردان میں حصے دار بھی نہیں بننا اور اچھی طرح شناخت بھی حاصل کرنی ہے کہ وہ کون کون ہے جو انسانی حقوق کی آڑ میں نریندر مودی کے قیدیوں کو بچانے کا مشن سنبھالنے جا رہا ہے۔ یا وہ کون ہے جو ان میں سے کسی کی تصویر اپنی ڈیپی کی زینت بنا کر انسانی حقوق کا راگ الاپنا شروع کرتا ہے۔ یہ گزارش مشورے کے درجے میں ہے، خود میں نریندر مودی کے کسی بھی یار کی وکالت نہیں کرں گا۔ آپ کرتے ہیں یا نہیں یہ آپ نے طے کرنا ہے۔
تحریر: رعایت اللہ فاروقی

تحریک طالبان اور آئی ایس آئی

وہ تحریک طالبان کے ساتھ پچھلے سات سال سے منسلک تھا. وزیریستان ھو یا افغانستان انکے ساتھ ھر جگہ لڑا. یہاں تک 2008 میں وہ میرانشاہ اور رزمک کے ڈمہ ڈولہ کے علاقے میں بھی دیکھا گیا جب آئی ایس آئی کے کچھ مقامی ایجنٹس نے اسے حکیم اللہ محسود کیساتھ دیکھ لیا. پھر کیا تھا اسکی رپورٹ جنرل ھیڈ کوارٹر ھوگئ کہ صوبیدار عظمت اللہ (فرضی نام) تحریک طالبان کے کمانڈر کے ساتھ دیکھا گیا ھے................
صوبیدار صاب 2003 میں میرانشاہ کے کچھ مقامی طالبان حلقوں سے متعارف کروا دیا گیا. پنجابی تھا لہذا خود کو پنجابی طالبان کے لبادے میں چھپا کر تحریک طالبان میں شامل ھوا. اور بالاخر کچھ عرصے کے بعد خود کو اس قابل کرلیا کہ اسے بڑے کمانڈروں کے بیچ جگہ مل گئی.
جب کھبی ھم سنتے ھیں کہ مصدقہ زرائع سے یہ معلوم ھوا ھے یا حساس اداروں کے رپورٹ کے مطابق تو انکے پیچھے انھی ذرائع کا ھاتھ ھوتا ھے.
کئی بار انکو اپنے کاز کیوجہ سے اپنے ھی فوجیوں پر گولیاں چلانی پڑی مگر پہلے فراھم شدہ اطلاع کیوجہ انکا نقصان زیادہ سے زیادہ ھوا. ایک بار شوال رائفل کے یونٹ کمانڈنٹ آفیسر کو یہ اطلاع دی گئی کہ اپکے جوان چست نہیں ھے ٹارگٹ برقعوں میں چھپ کر جارھے ھیں بالاخر وہ ٹارگٹ پکڑے گئے.
ایکبار اپریشن کے سلسلے میں کچھ جوان انکے ھاتھ لگے اور بالاخر انکو کیموفلاج کراکے نکلوا دیا گیا جس کے بعد فوج میں زلفیں رکھنے کی اجازت دی گئی ھر آفیسر اور جوان جب وہ اپریشن میں ھو ایک سویلین سوٹ, ایک پگڑی اپنے ساتھ ضرور رکھے گا تاکہ بوقت ضرورت اپنے اپکو دشمن کے بیچ ضم کرسکیں.
صوبیدار عظمت اللہ انھی کے بیچ رہ کر اپنے ملک کیلئے کام کرتا رھا اپنے بچوں اور خاندان سے دور یہاں تک کہ ایک دن ایک ڈرون اٹیک میں انکو بھی نشانہ بنایا گیا ان بارہ افراد کیساتھ جو میرانشاہ کے ملحقہ علاقے دتہ خیل میں ھوا.
آج وہ چکوال میں دفن ھے اور اسکے مزار پر پاکستان کا جھنڈا لہرا ھے اور قبر کے سرھانے لکھا ھوا ھے "ھم آپ سے وعدہ کرتے ھیں کہ آپکا مشن جاری رھیگا" انشاءاللہ
تحریر: عالیہ رحمن

IR teaching jobs in Bahawalpur

Name:Ahmad Mughal
Phone:+923334427773

This is ahmad mughal , they are hiring lecturers of IR in Allama Iqbal college, satellite town bwp. Contact them for details. It is last date.

for more information click here

International Relations

A map of North Waziristan showing the presence of various militant groups in the area

A map of North Waziristan showing the presence of various militant groups in the area. SOURCES: AEI/CRITICALTHREATS.ORG

IR Dept.. publish Tahir Faiz's status ,, this status publish on our facebook page

i want to pay tribute to our dear c.r Mian Umer Inam 
Mian Umer Inam 
for its outstanding contribution towards the class. It is fact that Umer is very intellectual and long term strategist that's why he never ever tried to waste our time and energy in other extra curricular activities except study.


he always took pain for us, i really want to pay tribute behalf of the whole class for not arranging any trip and other recreational activities to make us only and only study oriented class.

it is fact me and my fellows never met this kind of intellectual and noble and will never...... Umer knows the importance of time and energy and he proved it in its 02 years very short tenure as a class representative.. i want to salute you brother

THANKS Mian Umer Inam

Regards IR 4th semester morning in special contribution with Mati UR Rehman, Salman Sakhi, Sami Sukhera and Ahmed Mustafa

Pakistan’s energy crisis: causes, consequences and possible remedies

By: Safiya Aftab

The energy crisis is the largest single drain on Pakistan’s economy. This crisis stems from a fuel mix transformation initiated two decades ago, when power generation came to rely more on imported furnace oil than hydropower. The resultant increased power generation costs, coupled with the high proportion of line losses, have led to the need to increase tariffs, while causing losses to power generation, transmission and distribution companies. 

This in turn has given rise to the phenomenon of circular debt in the energy sector, whereby slippages in the payment of bill (particularly on the part of public institutions) trigger a chain of delayed payments for imported furnace oil, natural gas or other inputs to the thermal generation system, which in turn hamper the operation of the power plants and result in less than optimum capacity usage. In addition, the energy crisis is a significant drain on the government’s resources, with energy subsidies taking up a substantial part of the federal budget. Under an International Monetary Fund agreement of September 2013 the government is committed to clearing the circular debt, adjusting tariffs to improve resource allocation and encourage conservation, and implementing fuel policies aimed at ensuring natural gas supplies to power plants.


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Creating an environment that counteracts militant ideologies and radicalism in Pakistan

 By: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)



A growing realisation among various states that counter-terrorism efforts to kill and capture militants will not in themselves suffice to check the militant onslaught has prompted them to evolve “soft” approaches and strategies to win the hearts and minds of the people and eliminate hatred, intolerance and extreme interpretations of religion.

Such soft approaches are at the heart of various counter-radicalisation and deradicalisation programmes that are being implemented in various Muslim-majority and other countries. The Egyptian, Yemeni, Jordanian and Indonesian models essentially developed as ideological responses to terrorism and extremism, while the Saudi model emphasised rehabilitation through psychological and social modules, along with ideological responses. 

Most of these programmes are based on the assumption that religious extremism is a matter of ideology originating from a (mis)interpretation of religion that leads to deviant social and psychological behaviours, and there is sufficient evidence available to indicate that this assumption is valid for Pakistan.


Genesis of Militancy in Pakistan

By: Maryam Azam

Maryam Azam thinks terrorism under cover of religion and sanctified as jihad is being used to foist extremist ideologies and achieve the agendas of the militant groups.

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The Kashmir Dispute: Key to South Asian Peace

By: Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Cheema discusses India’s evasive diplomacy on Kashmir and analyses the failure of both military and non-military means in solving this oldest issue on UN agenda. Alongside the on-again off-again composite dialogue Pakistan has even broached out of the box solutions but India remains self-serving in its Kashmir diplomacy.

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Promote honey waley tmam students ku congrats


World Political Map


World Political Map

(it is very helpful for the students of Politics and International Relations (IR) 
for download this world political map in size of 1920x1200, 
 click here





www.facebook.com/irdepartment

Afghanistan Drawdown and Regional Security

Afghanistan Drawdown and Regional Security

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Pakistan-Russia Relations: Progress, Prospects and Constraints

By: Muhammad Hanif

In the Cold War period relations between Pakistan and the then USSR remained generally uneasy barring some diplomatic initiatives for improvement.

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Pakistan’s ‘Regional Pivot’ and the Endgame in Afghanistan


By:  Dr. Ishtiaq Ahmad

After a long and costly war, Afghanistan is on its way to an uncertain security and political transition ahead of NATO’s military exit by the end of 2014.

Students of IR Morning + evening (final + previous) visited PTV center Multan for a program

Students of IR Morning + evening (final + previous) visited PTV center Multan for a program. this snap was taken in PTV mess. it was a good experience for all the visitors.


Analysis of Trade Before and After the WTO: A Case Study of South Asia

By: Muhammad Ijaz LatifRana Ejaz Ali Khan

Abstract:

Trade stimulates economic growth as well as create employment. The basic principles (of the WTO) make the system economically more efficient and cut the production and marketing costs. It gives consumers more choice, and a broader range of qualities to choose from. These are the basic benefits of world trading given by the WTO (WTO 2003). 

A number of studies have explained implications of the WTO with reference to developed and developing countries. How much trade has been increased by nations after the implementation of the WTO remained an ambiguous estimation. 

The increase in trade can result into benefits of the WTO. Generally, it is taken that developing economies have taken lesser tranche of the global trading. By applying the before-after approach we have tried to estimate that how much trade is increased in South Asian counties. How much the agriculture and industrial sectors were contributing in boosting the trade of the nations before the WTO and how it is doing after the WTO. It concluded that trade of the South Asian nations has not been increased up to the expectations that results in to low gaining of benefits from world trade.

Impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on firms’ degree of internationalization: Evidence from Pakistan

By: Muhammad Ijaz Latif, (Department of International Relations, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur, Pakistan) and others,.

Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to postulate the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on internationalization strategies of member countries’ firms. The study also aims to triangulate the proposed model using empirical data from PTA partner economies.

Design/methodology/approach – The mixed methods research design is used for the purpose of inquiry as suggested by Creswell. The inductive reasoning based on critical literature review and grounded theory methodology is used to postulate the model. Explanatory strength of the model is triangulated using empirical longitudinal trade data of Pakistan with her bilateral PTA partners, i.e. Malaysia, Mauritius, Iran, Sri Lanka and China. Internationalization indices are adapted following the Ietto-Gillies and London (2009) and Petri (1994) to measure the intensity and geographical diversification dimensions of internationalization. Country-level trade statistics are used as a proxy of firm-level data to explain the international expansion of home firms resulting from PTAs.

Findings – Empirical results confirm a strong and long-term impact of PTAs on the intensity and extensity dimensions of internationalization over post-agreement period in Pakistan and member economies. Gravity index depicts greater concentration of Pakistan's trade in FTA markets and thereby confirms the influence of PTAs on international market selection. Analysis at sectoral level depicts a contraction in services trade whereas expansion in the manufacturing firms’ export growth to member economies.

Originality/value – The paper extends the theory of internationalization by identifying PTAs as exogenous variable influencing internationalization strategies of member countries’ firms in a developing South Asian context. Coupled with findings from empirical data, the study identifies PTAs as a new strategic trade policy tool available to policy makers for promoting and influencing the home firms’ internationalization strategies.

The geopolitics of the Ukraine crisis

By: 


Ukraine experienced the most dramatic weekend in European history since the fall of the communist regimes. Twenty-four hours after unprecedented violence in the streets of Kiev, which claimed the lives of 80 demonstrators and more than a dozen policemen, the situation remains uncertain.

The Ukrainian president, Victor Yanukovich, has fled the capital, leaving behind him a power vacuum that will potentially reshape the balance of power in the region between Russia and the European Union. As governmental forces disappeared from the streets of Kiev, several key questions remain: Who can claim legitimate authority?  Is there a future for a united Ukraine? How will the current evolution impact Russian and European presence and control over their shared neighbourhood?

Although contested by Yanukovich's supporters, the immediate political next steps have been swiftly and overwhelmingly agreed on by the Parliament: A return to the 2004 Constitution that reaffirms the authority of the Parliament (the Verkhovna Rada) over the president and new presidential elections in May. If this ensures a return to a well-known institutional framework established 10 years ago after the first ousting of Victor Yanukovich - a president that now has on his record not one but two destitutions - it does not ensure long term stability by any means.
None of the opposition parties can claim to legitimately represent the popular uprising by itself. "Fatherland", a coalition of parties behind former president Yulia Tymoshenko and led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk during her imprisonment, has traditionally been at the forefront of the contestation to Yanukovich.
However, the party was rejected by the population during the 2010 elections and the return of Tymoshenko - a polarising figure in Ukraine - on the forefront of the political stage comes with its fair share of liabilities in the attempt to reunite the country. Although it is the largest opposition political force in the Rada, "Fatherland" is also flanked by two other opposition parties who took a central part during the popular revolt on the Maidan: "Svoboda" and the "Democratic Alliance for Reform".

"Svoboda", a nationalist party led by populist leader Oleh Tiahnybok, was at the frontline of the resistance to Yanukovich's Special Forces (the Berkuts) during the last weeks of the contestation and its momentum culminated yesterday when police forces from Lviv (the birthplace of "Svoboda") joined the movement. Similarly, former heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, who heads the Democratic Alliance for Reform, emerged as a key opposition leader and gained credibility over the last weeks.
It remains unclear how each opposition force will manage to govern the country in coalition until the next elections or with which legitimacy since more than a hundred parliamentary members supporting Yanukovich did not take part in the most recent votes.

On the bright side, recent attempts by the recently deposed president to divide the opposition by proposing governmental positions to Yatsenyuk and Klitschko were unsuccessful. This tends to show the capacity and will of opposition leaders to work together during the conflict. Yet, now that the conflict seems to have tipped in favour of the opposition, agreeing on a common political platform including "Svoboda" will be another challenge. The opposition to the lavish lifestyle and corruption of Victor Yanukovich cannot be the only common denominator to agree on a sustainable political transition.

From instability to geopolitical fractures
The political instability in Kiev is limited however in comparison with the ever-growing rift between the Eastern and Western parts of Ukraine. The country is deeply divided between two regions which have very few in common. One is resolutely turned towards the European Union and advocates for a liberal market economy. Its majority Christian Catholic and well educated population speaks Ukrainian and has supported opposition leaders throughout the Yanukovich end of reign.

On the other side of the country, Crimea and the Eastern provinces still firmly back the former president. The population there is in majority orthodox, speaks Russian and looks confidently towards Moscow for the stability and economic security it provides to Ukraine thanks to its discounted gas prices and its strong presence in the national economy.

The division of the country is nothing new. The Western part of Ukraine has long been under Polish control while the Eastern part was governed by Russia. The very existence of Ukraine as a unitary country has been contested throughout modern history, as shown by the treaty of Riga in 1921 dismantling the country, and the emergence of a common Ukrainian identity only gained momentum in the 19th century.

The result is that while half of the country cheered yesterday over the destitution of the president, advocating for an alliance with the European Union and away from a corrupted Russian influenced regime, the other half of the country, which followed the Kiev uprising through Russian media, still calls for a return of Yanukovich and protection from the Kremlin against fascist forces.

This division also answers a wider geopolitical fracture between the European Union and Russia. What is at stake in Kiev has ramifications in the fields of energy security, regional integration and international balance of power. Ukraine is a central card in Putin's hand to revitalise the Russian strategy, hoping to renew with its status of leading geopolitical power in Europe and Asia.

If Ukraine drifts towards Europe, the political project of Eurasian Union defended by Putin will be strongly challenged. More importantly, Ukraine also controls most of the transit of Russian gas towards the West and thus Putin's energy grasp over the European Union. A day after the Russian hockey team, which concentrated the hope and pride of the whole country, faced an embarrassing elimination in the Sotchi Olympic Games, Putin suffered a salient geopolitical defeat underestimating the European Union capacity to intervene.

Indeed, the current evolution in Ukraine has shown that the European Union could finally lead an effective common foreign policy. After the stammering and hesitations shown over the last few months and the incapacity to agree on an ambitious European support to Ukraine, the visit to Kiev of the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Poland has been essential in stopping the violence and in drafting a truth agreement between both parts of the conflict.

By agreeing on common sanctions towards Ukrainian oligarchs, who had much more to lose than their Belarussian counterparts three years ago in a similar situation, the European Union isolated Yanukovich from its domestic support.

As a conclusion, if the future of Ukraine remains uncertain both in terms of the sustainability of its political transition and its capacity to remain united, what this crisis has demonstrated is that when united, the European Union is able to be an effective foreign policy actor and stand in front of Russia.


Remi Piet is Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Diplomacy and International Political Economy Department of International Affairs College of Arts and Sciences Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Russia-Ukraine Geopolitics: Big Oil’s Drive to War


“We are witnessing a huge geopolitical game in which the aim is the destruction of Russia as a geopolitical opponent of the US or of the global financial oligarchy…..The realization of this project is in line with the concept of global domination that is being carried out by the US.” – Vladimir Yakunin, former Russian senior diplomat
“History shows that wherever the U.S. meddles; chaos and misery are soon to follow.” – Kalithea, comments line, Moon of Alabama
Following a 13 year rampage that has reduced large swathes of Central Asia and the Middle East to anarchy and ruin, the US military juggernaut has finally met its match on a small peninsula in southeastern Ukraine that serves as the primary operating base for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Crimea is the door through which Washington must pass if it intends to extend its forward-operating bases throughout Eurasia, seize control of vital pipeline corridors and resources, and establish itself as the dominant military/economic power-player in the new century. Unfortunately, for Washington, Moscow has no intention of withdrawing from the Crimea or relinquishing control of its critical military outpost in Sevastopol.
That means that the Crimea–which has been invaded by the Cimmerians, Bulgars, Greeks, Scythians, Goths, Huns, Khazars, Ottomans, Turks, Mongols, and Germans–could see another conflagration in the months ahead, perhaps, triggering a Third World War, the collapse of the existing global security structure, and a new world order, albeit quite different from the one imagined by the fantasists at the Council on Foreign Relations and the other far-right think tanks that guide US foreign policy and who are responsible for the present crisis.
How Washington conducts itself in this new conflict will tell us whether the authors of the War on Terror–that public relations hoax that concealed the goals of eviscerated civil liberties and one world government–were really serious about actualizing their NWO vision or if it was merely the collective pipedream of corporate CEOs and bored bankers with too much time on their hands. In the Crimea, the empire faces a real adversary, not a disparate group of Kalashinov-waving jihadis in flip-flops. This is the Russian Army; they know how to defend themselves and they are prepared to do so. That puts the ball in Obama’s court. It’s up to him and his crackpot “Grand Chessboard” advisors to decide how far they want to push this. Do they want to intensify the rhetoric and ratchet up the sanctions until blows are exchanged, or pick up their chips and walk away before things get out of hand? Do they want to risk it all on one daredevil roll of the dice or move on to Plan B? That’s the question. Whatever US policymakers decide, one thing is certain, Moscow is not going to budge. Their back is already against the wall. Besides, they know that a lunatic with a knife is on the loose, and they’re ready to do whatever is required to protect their people. If Washington decides to cross that line and provoke a fight, then there’s going to trouble. It’s as simple as that.
Perma-hawk, John McCain thinks that Obama should take off the gloves and show Putin who’s boss. In an interview with TIME magazine McCain said “This is a chess match reminiscent of the Cold War and we need to realize that and act accordingly…We need to take certain measures that would convince Putin that there is a very high cost to actions that he is taking now.”
“High cost” says McCain, but high cost for who?
What McCain fails to realize is that this is not Afghanistan and Obama is not in a spitting match with puppet Karzai. Leveling sanctions against Moscow will have significant consequences, the likes of which could cause real harm to US interests. Did we mention that “ExxonMobil’s biggest non-US oil project is a collaboration with Russia’s Rosneft in the Arctic, where it has billions of dollars of investments at stake.” What if Putin decides that it’s no longer in Moscow’s interest to honor contracts that were made with US corporations? What do you think the reaction of shareholders will be to that news? And that’s just one example. There are many more.
Any confrontation with Russia will result in asymmetrical attacks on the dollar, the bond market, and oil supplies. Maybe the US could defeat Russian forces in the Crimea. Maybe they could sink the fleet and rout the troops, but there’ll be a heavy price to pay and no one will be happy with the outcome. Here’s a clip from an article at Testosterone Pit that sums it up nicely:
“Sergei Glazyev, the most hardline of Putin’s advisors, sketched the retaliation strategy: Drop the dollar, sell US Treasuries, encourage Russian companies to default on their dollar-denominated debts, and create an alternative currency system with the BRICS and hydrocarbon producers like Venezuela and Iran…
Putin’s ally and trusted friend, Rosneft president Igor Sechin…suggested that it was “advisable to create an international stock-exchange for the participating countries, where transactions could be registered with the use of regional currencies.” (From Now On, No Compromises Are Possible For Russia , Testosterone Pit)
As the US continues to abuse its power, these changes become more and more necessary. Foreign governments must form new alliances in order to abandon the present system–the “dollar system”–and establish greater parity between nation-states, the very nation-states that Washington is destroying one-by-one to establish its ghoulish vision of global corporate utopia. The only way to derail that project is by exposing the glaring weakness in the system itself, which is the use of an international currency that is backed by $15 trillion in government debt, $4 trillion in Federal Reserve debt, and trillions more in unpaid and unpayable federal obligations. Whatever steps Moscow takes to abort the current system and replace the world’s reserve currency with money that represents a fair store of value, should be applauded.
Washington’s reckless and homicidal behavior around the world make it particularly unsuitable as the de facto steward of the global financial system or to enjoy seigniorage, which allows the US to play banker to the rest of the world. The dollar is the foundation upon which rests the three pillars of imperial strength; political, economic and military. Remove that foundation and the entire edifice comes crashing to earth. Having abused that power, by killing and maiming millions of people across the planet; the world needs to transition to another, more benign way of consummating its business transactions, preferably a currency that is not backed by the blood and misery of innocent victims. Paul Volcker summed up the feelings of many dollar-critics in 2010 when he had this to say:
“The growing sense around much of the world is that we have lost both relative economic strength and more important, we have lost a coherent successful governing model to be emulated by the rest of the world. Instead, we’re faced with broken financial markets, underperformance of our economy and a fractious political climate.”
America is irreparably broken and Washington is a moral swamp. The world needs regime change; new leaders, new direction and a different system.
In our last article, we tried to draw attention to the role of big oil in the present crisis. Author Nafeez Ahmed expands on that theme in a “must read” article in Monday’s Guardian. Check out this brief excerpt from Ahmed’s piece titled “Ukraine crisis is about Great Power oil, gas pipeline rivalry”:
“Ukraine is increasingly perceived to be critically situated in the emerging battle to dominate energy transport corridors linking the oil and natural gas reserves of the Caspian basin to European markets… Considerable competition has already emerged over the construction of pipelines. Whether Ukraine will provide alternative routes helping to diversify access, as the West would prefer, or ‘find itself forced to play the role of a Russian subsidiary,’ remains to be seen.” (Guardian)
The western oil giants have been playing “catch up” for more than a decade with Putin checkmating them at every turn. As it happens, the wily KGB alum has turned out to be a better businessman than any of his competitors, essentially whooping them at their own game, using the free market to extend his network of pipelines across Central Asia and into Europe. That’s what the current crisis is all about. Big Oil came up “losers” in the resource war so now they want Uncle Sam to apply some muscle to put them back in the game. It’s called “sour grapes”, which refers to the whining that people do when they got beat fair and square. Here’s more from Ahmed:
“To be sure, the violent rioting was triggered by frustration with (Ukrainian President) Yanukovych’s rejection of the EU deal, (in favor of Putin’s sudden offer of a 30% cheaper gas bill and a $15 billion aid package) along with rocketing energy, food and other consumer bills, linked to Ukraine’s domestic gas woes ….. Police brutality to suppress what began as peaceful demonstrations was the last straw…” (Ukraine crisis is about Great Power oil, gas pipeline rivalry , Guardian)
In other words, Yanukovych rejected an offer from Chevron that the EU and Washington were pushing, and went with the sweeter deal from Russia. According to Ahmed, that pissed off the bigwigs who decided to incite the rioting. (“Putin’s sudden offer of a 30% cheaper gas bill and a $15 billion aid package provoked the protests…”)
Like we said before; it’s just a case of sour grapes.
So, tell me, dear reader: Is this the first time you’ve heard a respected analyst say that oil was behind the rioting, the coup, and the confrontation with Moscow?
I’ll bet it is. Whatever tentacles Wall Street may have wrapped around the White House, Capital Hill, and the US judiciary; Big Oil still rules the roost. The Apostles of the Fossil are the oldest and most powerful club in Washington, and “What they say, goes”. As Ahmed so articulately points out:
“Resource scarcity, competition to dominate Eurasian energy corridors, are behind Russian militarism and US interference…Ukraine is caught hapless in the midst of this accelerating struggle to dominate Eurasia’s energy corridors in the last decades of the age of fossil fuels.” (“Ukraine crisis is about Great Power oil, gas pipeline rivalry”, Guardian)
Did I hear someone say “Resource War”?
As we noted in an earlier article, NWO mastermind Zbigniew Brzezinski characterized the conflict with Russia in terms of cutting off “Western access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia”. For some unknown reason, America’s behemoth oil corporations think the resources that lie beneath Russian soil belong to them. The question is whether their agents will push Obama to put American troops at risk to assert that claim. If they do, there’s going to be a war.
Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion  (AK Press). Hopeless is also available in a Kindle edition . He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.